Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Analysis: A Fuzzy Set Approach

Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Analysis: A Fuzzy Set Approach

Risk assessment is a popular and important tool in decision making process. Risk assessment is generally performed using models and model is a function of some parameters which are usually affected by uncertainty. Here, we consider that model parameters are affected by epistemic uncertainty. To represent epistemic uncertainty in general triangular fuzzy number or trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are u...

Uncertainty in fault tree analysis: A fuzzy approach

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF STABILITY OF GRAVITY DAMS USING THE FUZZY SET THEORY

This paper introduces a methodology for considering the uncertainties in stability analysis of gravity dams. For this purpose, a conceptual model based on the fuzzy set theory and Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization is developed to be coupled to a gravity dam analysis model. The uncertainties are represented by the fuzzy numbers and the GA is used to estimate in what...

Fuzzy parametric uncertainty analysis of linear dynamical systems: A surrogate modeling approach

Uncertainty propagation engineering systems possess significant computational challenges. This paper explores the possibility of using correlated function expansion based metamodelling approach when uncertain system parameters are modeled using Fuzzy variables. In particular, the application of High-Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) is proposed for fuzzy finite element analysis of dynamic...

Towards Supply Chain Planning Integration: Uncertainty Analysis Using Fuzzy Mathematical Programming Approach in a Plastic Forming Company

Affected by globalization and increased complexity, supply chain managers have learned about the importance of Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP). However, in large scale supply chains, S&OP has received little attention, by both academics and practitioners. The purpose of this manuscript is to investigate the advantages of S&OP process using a mathematical modeling approach in a large scale ...